Climate impacts of the southern annular mode simulated by the CMIP3 models

• Published in: Journal of Climate
• Main Authors: Karpechko, Alexey Yu, Gillett, Nathan P., Marshall, Gareth J., Screen, James A.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Meteorological Society 2009
• Subjects: Annular mode; Climate change; Southern Hemisphere; Sea ice; Coupled models; Temperature; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/10443; https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2788.1; https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3400.1

© Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [e-mail]. The southern annular mode (SAM) has a well-established impact on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest response in surface air temperature (SAT) is observed in the Antarctic, but the SAM’s area of influence extends much farther, with statistically significant effects on temperature and precipitation being detected as far north as 20°S. Here the authors quantify the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled climate models to simulate the observed SAT, total precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice concentration responses to the SAM. The models are able to simulate the spatial pattern of response in SAT reasonably well; however, all models underestimate the magnitude of the response over Antarctica, both at the surface and in the free troposphere. This underestimation of the temperature response has implications for prediction of the future temperature changes associated with expected changes in the SAM. The models possess reasonable skill in simulating patterns of precipitation and SST response; however, some ...