| Summary: | International audience recent studies show that the ozone layer will be recovered until 2050. This is a significant result of the Montreal protocol which points out the success of this environment protection agreement. However, climate change projections show that the total ozone content will have a relevant increase until the end of this century, mainly at higher latitudes. On one hand, this increase can reduce the adverse effects of UV radiation overexposure. On the other hand, the decrease of UV availability at the surface can reduce the synthesis of vitamin D among the inhabitants of these regions. in this study, we provide erythemal (Dosee) and vitamin D (DoseD) weighted UV daily doses estimates for ten different sites of south america and antartica. Our calculations are based on the ozone forecasts provided by four climate models reported on the last ipCC report. Unlike previous works, our study evaluates the impact on the daily dose of radiation received. thus, these results can be used as an important tool for the health studies on the excess or lack of sun exposure. The first results show significant UV attenuation at Southern sites. At 30°s, Dosee and DoseD can be reduced between 5 and 7%, respectively, until the end of this century if the anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the time. at 50°s, these reductions increase to 12 and 21%, respectively; and, in antartica they will possibly exceed 15 and 30%, respectively. We did not observe significant variations at the equatorial sites. in this talk we also discuss the impact of these UV availability reductions on the population’s health.
|
|---|