Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Sun, Sainan, Pattyn, Frank, Simon, Erika, Albrecht, Torsten, Cornford, Stephen, Calov, Reinhard, Dumas, Christophe, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas, Greve, Ralf, Hoffman, Matthew, Humbert, Angelika, Kazmierczak, Elise, Kleiner, Thomas, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William, Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nowicki, Sophie, Pollard, David, Price, Stephen, Quiquet, Aurélien, Seroussi, Hélène, Schlemm, Tanja, Sutter, Johannes, van de Wal, Roderik, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhang, Tong
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de Glaciologie Bruxelles, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Swansea University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: Antarctic glaciology; ice-sheet modelling; ice shelves; [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; Antarc*; Antarctic; Antarctica; East Antarctica; Ice Sheet; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03047833; https://hal.science/hal-03047833/document; https://hal.science/hal-03047833/file/div-class-title-antarctic-ice-sheet-response-to-sudden-and-sustained-ice-shelf-collapse-abumip-div.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67

International audience Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 icesheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine icesheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.