Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble

We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions a...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate of the Past
Main Authors: Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2013
Subjects:
Global and Planetary Change
Stratigraphy
Paleontology
Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013
Description
Summary:We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the f.©Author(s) 2013.

Similar Items