| Summary: | Marine productivity along the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is declining. The WAP is site of the fastest regional warming in the southern hemisphere, and has experienced atmospheric and oceanic temperature increases leading to increased glacial inputs and reduced winter sea-ice cover. Sea-ice is a key link between climate and phytoplankton production, as melting sea-ice stratifies the water column and provides a source of micronutrients to surface waters. Reductions in ice cover have been accompanied by declining chlorophyll (chl; a proxy for phytoplankton biomass), and a shift to smaller cell sizes in phytoplankton communities. These reductions have implications for carbon drawdown and production available to higher trophic levels. However, little is known about phytoplankton shifts at the community level, as existing studies are based on satellite records and photosynthetic pigment analyses. To elucidate the nature of the changes within phytoplankton assemblages, high-resolution time-series data of diatom speciation are coupled to environmental data from five years in Ryder Bay (Adelaide Island, WAP). Long-term monitoring at this site by the British Antarctic Survey has identified a strong relationship between chl and water column stratification, and this study spans a wide range of physical conditions and biological production. By comparing high- and low-chl phytoplankton assemblages, this study investigates the mechanisms underlying productivity changes and the manner in which these changes impact nutrient cycling, drawdown and trophic transfer. The results presented here are the first full season in-situ records documenting differences in phytoplankton and diatom assemblages between highand low-chl years. The primary difference between chl conditions is a dramatic decline in diatom abundance. This analysis indicates that the mechanism producing low-chl seasons is less stratified surface waters, where light levels are much more variable than in high-chl years. Overall production is reduced, and small ...
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