| Summary: | Persistence of standing dead trees (snags) is an important determinant for their role for biodiversity and dead wood associated carbon fluxes. How fast snags fall varies widely among species and regions and is further influenced by a variety of stand- and tree-level factors. However, our understanding of this variation is fragmentary at best, partly due to lack of empirical data. Here, we took advantage of the accruing time series of snag observations in the Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish National Forest Inventories that have been followed in these programs since the mid-1990s. We first harmonized observations from slightly different inventory protocols and then, using this harmonized dataset of ca. 43 000 observations that had a consistent 5-year census interval, we modeled the probability of snags of the main boreal tree species Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, and Betula spp. falling, as a function of tree- and stand-level variables, using Bayesian logistic regression modeling. The models were moderately good at predicting snags remaining standing or falling, with a correct classification rate ranging from 68% to 75% among species. In general, snag persistence increased with tree size and climatic wetness, and decreased with temperature sum, advancing stage of decay, site productivity, and disturbance intensity (mainly harvesting). Synthesis and applications. The effect of harvesting demonstrates that an efficient avenue to increase the amount of snags in managed forests is protecting them during silvicultural operations. In the warmer future, negative relationship between snag persistence and temperature suggests decreasing the time snags remain standing and hence decreasing habitat availability for associated species. As decomposition rates generally increase after fall, decreasing snag persistence also implies substantially faster release of carbon from dead wood. 2
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