Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Ogawa, Fumiaki, Keenlyside, Noel, Gao, Yongqi, Koenigk, Torben, Yang, Shuting, Suo, Lingling, Wang, Tao, Gastineau, Guillaume, Nakamura, Tetsu, Cheung, Ho Nam, Omrani, Nour-Eddine, Ukita, Jinro, Semenov, Vladimir
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: AGU 2018
Subjects:
Arctic
Climate change
Global warming
Sea ice
Siberia
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975804
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502
Description
Summary:Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends. publishedVersion

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