The impact of warm conveyor belt forecast uncertainty on downstream predictability

• Main Author: Berman, Jeremy
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Scholars Archive 2020
• Subjects: Diabatic; Forecasts; Potential Vorticity; Rossby; Warm Conveyor Belt; Waveguide; Cyclones; Cyclone forecasting; Rossby waves; Atmospheric temperature; Atmospheric waves; Atmospheric Sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/legacy-etd/2438; https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/context/legacy-etd/article/3437/viewcontent/Berman_4NaoUjjCBsbzjqUNbs9kXv.pdf

Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. The PV waveguide is often perturbed in association with cyclogenesis, largely due to the latent heat release within the cyclone’s warm conveyor belt (WCB). Previous studies have hypothesized that forecast uncertainty associated with diabatic heating in WCBs can result in large downstream forecast variability; however these studies have not established a direct connection between the two. This hypothesis is evaluated for six cyclogenesis events characterized by highly amplified flow over the North Atlantic using ensemble model simulations.