The impact of warm conveyor belt forecast uncertainty on downstream predictability

Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. The PV waveguide is often perturbed in association with cyclogenesis, largely due to the latent heat release within the cyclone’s warm conveyor belt...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Berman, Jeremy
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Scholars Archive 2020
Subjects:
Diabatic
Forecasts
Potential Vorticity
Rossby
Warm Conveyor Belt
Waveguide
Cyclones
Cyclone forecasting
Rossby waves
Atmospheric temperature
Atmospheric waves
Atmospheric Sciences
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/legacy-etd/2438
https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/context/legacy-etd/article/3437/viewcontent/Berman_4NaoUjjCBsbzjqUNbs9kXv.pdf
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Summary:Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. The PV waveguide is often perturbed in association with cyclogenesis, largely due to the latent heat release within the cyclone’s warm conveyor belt (WCB). Previous studies have hypothesized that forecast uncertainty associated with diabatic heating in WCBs can result in large downstream forecast variability; however these studies have not established a direct connection between the two. This hypothesis is evaluated for six cyclogenesis events characterized by highly amplified flow over the North Atlantic using ensemble model simulations.

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