| Summary: | Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2012 Accurate estimates of, and identifying factors affecting, survival and productivity can provide insight into population trends and help determine what management actions would most benefit a population. Only limited demographic data are available for many Arctic-breeding shorebird species. I estimated survival probabilities for Arctic-breeding Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola); for adults between 2003 and 2010, and for chicks in 2008 and 2009. Adult apparent survival probabilities were higher for males (0.60 ± 0.04) than females (0.41 ± 0.05), were higher for individuals initiating nests earlier in the season, and yearly variation was high. These apparent survival rates appear insufficient to maintain a stable population. Daily survival rates of chicks increased as insect biomass increased across all ages and hatch dates, but the relationship with age and hatch date depended on the values of the other variables. The probability of a chick surviving to 15 days of age showed a strong relationship with hatch date, peaking in early July then declining rapidly. Chick survival was much higher for young from first nests (0.71 0.07) than early (0.23 ± 0.19) or late (0.03 ± 0.61) replacement nests. This suggests replacement nests make a much smaller contribution to annual recruitment than first nests.
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