| Summary: | This report contains results of a formal statistical analysis of the association of high prices for home heating fuel with out-migration from rural Alaska communities, using data from Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend applications from 2003 to 2015. Although anecdotal reports have described hardships caused by the rising cost of fuel, this study is the first to subject the hypothesis of fuel-related out-migration to rigorous statistical testing. This study addressed five main research questions: 1. What is the evidence that out-migration from rural Alaska communities was associated with fuel prices? 2. How sensitive are out-migration rates to fuel prices? 3. Does the effect of high prices on out-migration in communities with the chronically high fuel prices differ from the effect across all communities of high-cost years? 4. How do effects of fuel prices on out-migration differ for regional hubs and smaller villages? 5. How does the magnitude of the effect of fuel prices compare to that of other drivers of mobility, such as employment and income? The study region was defined as the area of western and northern Alaska with neither road nor year-round water access. We divided this region into local areas consisting of the nine Census Areas/Boroughs in the region with the regional hub communities of Dillingham, Bethel, Nome, Barrow/Utqiagvik, and Kotzebue separated from smaller villages in their respective Census Areas/Boroughs. The statistical analysis examined five binary variables representing different types of potential moves that an individual could make outside the local area of residence: 1. Leave rural Alaska (yes or no, all residents of the rural region); 2. Leave the local area (yes or no, all residents of the rural region); 3. If leave the local area, leave rural Alaska: (yes or no, residents leaving local area); 4. If leave a village, leave rural Alaska: (yes or no, residents leaving local area who started in a smaller village and not a regional hub); 5. Leave rural Alaska (yes or no, regional hub ...
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