Icy insights: decrypting the depths with novel stochastic techniques to model and mitigate Arctic under-ice oil spills

Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2023 The retreat and thinning of Arctic sea ice, driven by climate change, have increased the potential for maritime navigation in the region, thereby heightening concerns about the environmental impacts of potential oil spills in the Arctic. This...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Frazier, Kelsey A.
Other Authors: Peterson, Rorik, Kasper, Jeremy, Walsh, John Jr., Webster, Melinda
Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/11122/14954
Description
Summary:Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2023 The retreat and thinning of Arctic sea ice, driven by climate change, have increased the potential for maritime navigation in the region, thereby heightening concerns about the environmental impacts of potential oil spills in the Arctic. This dissertation, with a focus on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, seeks to develop a remote predictive method for assessing the subsurface features of Arctic sea ice, thereby facilitating rapid responses to Arctic oil spills without depending on time-consuming in situ measurements. The first paper of this dissertation addresses the need for oil spill modelers to understand oil movement along the subsurface of sea ice. Employing sonar data from the Chukchi Sea, the study investigates whether the subsurface topography of sea ice exhibits fractal scaling behavior. It was found that young sea ice exhibits multifractal scaling geometry, with parameters α, c1, and H determined as 1.2, 0.03, and 0.12, respectively. Fractal scaling behavior was not observed in other types of sea ice, highlighting the need for further research in this area. These findings are instrumental in enhancing predictive models for oil slick migration under sea ice, a crucial aspect of Arctic oil spill preparedness and mitigation. The dissertation's second paper analyzed five years of field data to determine the statistical distributions of subsurface features beneath various ice stages, using indirect assessment techniques. The analysis revealed that, with few exceptions, the subsurface features of sea ice predominantly follow lognormal distribution patterns, each characterized by distinct mean (mu) and standard deviation (sigma) values. This research represents a significant step forward in remote sea-ice characterization and is vital for formulating effective oil spill responses in the Arctic. The final paper utilized Arctic sea ice stage data, interpreted from satellite imagery, and sea ice draft data from moored sensors in the Beaufort and Chukchi ...