| Summary: | World salmon markets are dominated by farmed Atlantic salmon. As farmed salmon production has grown, Bristol Bay sockeye salmon has become an ever-smaller share of world salmon supply. Norway and Chile are by far the largest producers of farmed salmon, followed by the UK and Canada. Historically, year-over-year changes in US monthly imports have been inversely correlated with year-over-year changes in prices. What explains changes over time in the price premium or discount of sockeye relative to competing farmed salmon? Looking at the relationship between price and supply changes, we conclude that the market is able to absorb 6-7% more fish at stable prices. As a consequence, we expect a 5% increase in price is 2019 despite 4% supply growth.
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