Modelling species response to climate change in sub-Antarctic islands: echinoids as a case study for the Kerguelen Plateau

• Main Authors: Saucède, Thomas, Guillaumot, Charlène, Michel, Loïc, Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé, Bazin, Alexis, Cabessut, Marie, García-Berro, Aurora, Mateos, Amélie, Mathieu, Olivier, de Ridder, Chantal, Dubois, Philippe, Danis, Bruno, David, Bruno, Díaz, Angie, Lepoint, Gilles, Motreuil, Sébastien, Poulin, Elie, Féral, Jean-Pierre
• Other Authors: Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Biologie marine, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Departamento de Zoología, Universidad de Concepción - University of Concepcion Chile, Université de Liège, Universidad de Chile = University of Chile Santiago (UCHILE), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PROTEKER programme IPEV 1044, Australian Antarctic Division, D. Welsford, J. Dell J., G. Duhamel
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: species distribution model; trophic niche; isotopic niche; biotic interaction; distribution dynamics; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; Antarctic; Kerguelen; Kerguelen Islands; Îles Kerguelen; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02162630; https://hal.science/hal-02162630/document; https://hal.science/hal-02162630/file/2019_Sauc%C3%A8de_The%20Kerguelen%20Plateau-Marine%20ecosystem%20and%20fisheries_Modeling%20species%20response%20to%20climate%20change%20in%20sub-Antarctic%20islands%20-%20Echinoids%20as%20a%20case%20study%20for%20the%20Kerguelen%20Plateau.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3251680

International audience In the Kerguelen Islands, the multiple effects of climate change are expected to impact coastal marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDM) can represent a convenient tool to predict the biogeographic response of species to climate change but biotic interactions are not considered in these models. Nevertheless, new species interactions can emerge in communities exposed to environmental changes and the structure of biotic interactions is directly related to the potential resilience of ecosystems. Trophic interaction studies can help predict species vulnerability to environmental changes using carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) stable isotope ratios to generate trophic models. Using new available data inputs, we generated robust SDM and trophic interaction models to assess the potential response and sensitivity of three echinoid species to future worst-case scenarios of environmental change in the Kerguelen Plateau region. The two modelling approaches provide contrasting insights into the potential responses of each species to future environmental changes with both approaches identifying Abatus cordatus to be particularly vulnerable due to its narrow ecological niche and endemism to near-shore areas. Coupling insights gained from trophic niche ecology with species distribution modelling represents a promising approach that can improve our understanding and ability to predict the potential responses of species to future habitat changes. Les multiples effets du changement climatique impactent d’ores et déjà les habitats marins côtiers des îles Kerguelen. Les modèles de distribution d’espèces (SDM) peuvent permettre de prédire la réponse des espèces au changement climatique mais ces modèles n’intègrent pas le rôle joué par les interactions entre espèces. La structure de ces interactions est pourtant déterminante dans le potentiel de résilience des écosystèmes. Elle peut être modifiée et de nouvelles interactions peuvent émerger dans les communautés exposées aux changements ...