Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios
[1] We used an ensemble climate-model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North-Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non-...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254 |
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ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:41511 2024-05-12T08:04:34+00:00 Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios Schaeffer, M Selten, FM Opsteegh, JD Goosse, Hugues UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2002 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254 eng eng Amer Geophysical Union boreal:41511 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511 doi:10.1029/2002GL015254 urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:EISSN:1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, no. 16 (2002) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2002 ftunistlouisbrus https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254 2024-04-18T18:14:34Z [1] We used an ensemble climate-model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North-Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non-mitigation emission scenario the transition has a high probability to occur before 2100. In a lower IPCC scenario the probability is lower and the transition threshold is approached more gradually. We found that close to the threshold the evolution of the system becomes sensitive to small perturbations. Consequently, natural climate fluctuations limit the predictability of the timing of crossing the transition threshold, and thus of the abrupt climate change, most strongly for the lower IPCC scenario. No transition is projected for a mitigation scenario, in which CO2-equivalent concentrations are stabilized below the IPCC-scenario range. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) Greenland Geophysical Research Letters 29 16 14-1 14-4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
op_collection_id |
ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
description |
[1] We used an ensemble climate-model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North-Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non-mitigation emission scenario the transition has a high probability to occur before 2100. In a lower IPCC scenario the probability is lower and the transition threshold is approached more gradually. We found that close to the threshold the evolution of the system becomes sensitive to small perturbations. Consequently, natural climate fluctuations limit the predictability of the timing of crossing the transition threshold, and thus of the abrupt climate change, most strongly for the lower IPCC scenario. No transition is projected for a mitigation scenario, in which CO2-equivalent concentrations are stabilized below the IPCC-scenario range. |
author2 |
UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schaeffer, M Selten, FM Opsteegh, JD Goosse, Hugues |
spellingShingle |
Schaeffer, M Selten, FM Opsteegh, JD Goosse, Hugues Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
author_facet |
Schaeffer, M Selten, FM Opsteegh, JD Goosse, Hugues |
author_sort |
Schaeffer, M |
title |
Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
title_short |
Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
title_full |
Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios |
title_sort |
intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in ipccsres scenarios |
publisher |
Amer Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, no. 16 (2002) |
op_relation |
boreal:41511 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511 doi:10.1029/2002GL015254 urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:EISSN:1944-8007 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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29 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
14-1 |
op_container_end_page |
14-4 |
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1798846794223845376 |