Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCCSRES scenarios

[1] We used an ensemble climate-model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North-Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non-...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Schaeffer, M, Selten, FM, Opsteegh, JD, Goosse, Hugues
Other Authors: UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Amer Geophysical Union 2002
Subjects:
Greenland
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41511
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015254
Description
Summary:[1] We used an ensemble climate-model experiment to explore the timing and nature of an abrupt regional climate change within the 21st century. In response to global warming a North-Atlantic climate transition occurs, which affects climate over Greenland and northwestern Europe. For a high IPCC non-mitigation emission scenario the transition has a high probability to occur before 2100. In a lower IPCC scenario the probability is lower and the transition threshold is approached more gradually. We found that close to the threshold the evolution of the system becomes sensitive to small perturbations. Consequently, natural climate fluctuations limit the predictability of the timing of crossing the transition threshold, and thus of the abrupt climate change, most strongly for the lower IPCC scenario. No transition is projected for a mitigation scenario, in which CO2-equivalent concentrations are stabilized below the IPCC-scenario range.

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