Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6

Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states andevolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 modelsfrom the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capturekey...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Roach, Lettie A., Dörr, Jakob, Holmes, Caroline R., Massonnet, François, Blockley, Edward W., Notz, Dirk, Rackow, Thomas, Raphael, Marilyn N., O'Farrell, Siobhan P., Bailey, David A., Bitz, Cecilia M.
Other Authors: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020
Subjects:
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Geophysics
Antarctic
Antarc*
Sea ice
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/229731
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086729
Description
Summary:Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states andevolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 modelsfrom the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capturekey characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausiblehistorical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIAis consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5),the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea iceconcentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIAconcurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the endof the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios.

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