Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

• Published in: Aging Clinical and Experimental Research
• Main Authors: Turusheva, Anna, Frolova, Elena, Hegendörfer, Eralda, Degryse, Jean-Marie
• Other Authors: UCL - SSS/IRSS - Institut de recherche santé et société
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer 2017
• Subjects: Mental decline; Mortality; Older adults; Physical decline; Risk prediction model; Russia; Northwest Russia
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/176100; https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-016-0613-7

BACKGROUND: The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population. AIM: The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.