Natural drivers of multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability over the last millennium

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Halloran, Paul, Hall, Ian, Menary, Matthew, B, Reynolds, David, Scourse, James, Screen, James, Bozzo, Alessio, Dunstone, Nick, Phipps, Steven, Schurer, Andrew, Sueyoshi, Tetsuo, Zhou, Tianjun, Garry, Freya
• Other Authors: College of Life and Environmental Sciences Exeter, University of Exeter, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences Cardiff, Cardiff University, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS), European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Hobart (IMAS), University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS), School of Geosciences Edinburgh, University of Edinburgh (Edin.), National Institute of Polar Research Tokyo (NiPR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Arctic; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03147371; https://hal.science/hal-03147371/document; https://hal.science/hal-03147371/file/s41598-020-57472-2.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57472-2

International audience the climate varies due to human activity, natural climate cycles, and natural events external to the climate system. Understanding the different roles played by these drivers of variability is fundamental to predicting near-term climate change and changing extremes, and to attributing observed change to anthropogenic or natural factors. natural drivers such as large explosive volcanic eruptions or multidecadal cycles in ocean circulation occur infrequently and are therefore poorly represented within the observational record. Here we turn to the first high-latitude annually-resolved and absolutely dated marine record spanning the last millennium, and the paleoclimate Modelling intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phase 3 Last Millennium climate model ensemble spanning the same time period, to examine the influence of natural climate drivers on Arctic sea ice. We show that bivalve oxygen isotope data are recording multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability and through the climate model ensemble demonstrate that external natural drivers explain up to third of this variability. natural external forcing causes changes in sea-ice mediated export of freshwater into areas of active deep convection, affecting the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMoc) and thereby northward heat transport to the Arctic. this in turn leads to sustained anomalies in sea ice extent. the models capture these positive feedbacks, giving us improved confidence in their ability to simulate future sea ice in in a rapidly evolving Arctic.