New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Loeb, Norman, Wang, Hailan, Allan, Richard, Andrews, Timothy, Armour, Kyle, C, Cole, Jason, Dufresne, Jean-Louis, Forster, Piers, Gettelman, Andrew, Guo, Huan, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Ming, Yi, Paynter, David, Proistosescu, Cristian, Stuecker, Malte, Willén, Ulrika, Wyser, Klaus
• Other Authors: Viroscan3D SAS Lyon, France, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, University of Washington Seattle, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of Leeds, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Seattle
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology; Pacific; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02530975; https://hal.science/hal-02530975/document; https://hal.science/hal-02530975/file/LOEB_AMIP_Study_Manuscript_Revised_Combined.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086705

International audience We compare top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so‐called global warming “hiatus” of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low‐cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low‐cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a “pattern effect” that may be too weak compared to observations.