Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global Change Biology
Main Authors: Kentie, Rosemarie, Coulson, Tim, Hooijmeijer, Jos C E W, Howison, Ruth A, Loonstra, A H Jelle, Verhoeven, Mo A, Both, Christiaan, Piersma, Theunis
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2018
Subjects:
agricultural intensification
climate change
Integral Projection Model
phenology
shorebirds
source and sink
BLACK-TAILED GODWITS
LIMOSA-LIMOSA-LIMOSA
LAPWINGS VANELLUS-VANELLUS
CLIMATE-CHANGE
L. LIMOSA
NETHERLANDS
SURVIVAL
MODELS
MANAGEMENT
ARRIVAL
Vanellus vanellus
Limosa limosa
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/11370/497ff648-db93-45db-9c2c-5620789adf26
https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/497ff648-db93-45db-9c2c-5620789adf26
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14406
https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/64532006/Kentie_et_al_2018_Global_Change_Biology.pdf
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Summary:In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

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