Initial Tristan island exceptional circumstances rule development

The addition of Exceptional Circumstances (EC) provisions to the current OMP for Tristan island is investigated. Four EC options are considered, each allowing interannual TAC decreases in excess of 5% if the recent average CPUE drops below a specified level. These are tested against three bad scenar...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Susan Holloway, Doug Butterworth
Format: Report
Language:unknown
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Biological Mathematics
Applied Statistics
Biostatistics
Tristan rock lobster
Tristan da Cunha Islands
Exceptional Circumstances
EC rule development
Operational Management Procedures (OMPs)
Tac
Tristan
Tristan Island
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19168154.v1
https://figshare.com/articles/report/Initial_Tristan_island_exceptional_circumstances_rule_development/19168154
Description
Summary:The addition of Exceptional Circumstances (EC) provisions to the current OMP for Tristan island is investigated. Four EC options are considered, each allowing interannual TAC decreases in excess of 5% if the recent average CPUE drops below a specified level. These are tested against three bad scenarios for the resource, involving either a substantial mortality event or a large run of poor recruitments. Under the tests, all four EC options achieve better CPUE and lower 5%-ile for spawning biomass by 2032 than does the existing OMP without these EC provisions. All of the EC scenarios considered therefore seem to provide adequate safeguards for the resource. Accordingly, the least severe of the four in expected TAC reduction terms, EC2, is suggested for incorporation into the OMP.

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