| Summary: | In the last three decades, climate change and human activities increased desertification process in Mediterranean regions, mainly due to a reduction in rainfall and even greater of runoff, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water availability. Two key themes in the hydrological field, namely hydrological scale modeling and basin survey, and the study of climate and its impact on the territory have been studied. First, a historical analysis of weather data was carried out by verifying a negative trend of rains (with variability linked to wind and morphology) and even greater than the outflows (with reductions in the last thirty years between 35 and 60%) highlighting a marked rainfall-outflow non linearity, due both to flow-outflow processes and to variation in yearly rainfall seasonality; trying to understand the causes of such variations through the study of the main climatic patterns among which the North-Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and realizing an eco-hydrological model to understand the dynamics of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system at local (cell and basin) scale. The aim of this thesis is to use a calibrated and validated eco-hydrological model (for the Mulargia basin) to have a tool for predicting future outflows through the generation of future climatic scenarios obtained through a Stochastic analysis of historical weather data, Based on the studies proposed by the IPCC, highlighting for Mulargia a reduction of future outflows, especially during the winter, with a reduction much more drastic then the reduction evaluate for the same basin considering the hystorical data. Learn how the system responds to climate change scenarios and how the outflows and water levels that are expected to have in the main invasions will vary and will provide a useful tool for the governance of the territory.
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