Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Mentaschi L., Vousdoukas M. I., Voukouvalas E., Dosio A., Feyen L.
Other Authors: Vousdoukas M.I.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2017
Subjects:
AAO
ENSO
and NAO
coastal hazard
extreme wave
nonstationary EVA
teleconnection
wave climate changes
Antarctic
The Antarctic
Antarc*
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883773
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072488
Description
Summary:In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long-term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

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