| Summary: | Climate change is causing rapid changes in Arctic marine ecosystems and understanding its impacts on wildlife is critical for conservation management, especially as the decline in sea ice leads to increased development and vessel traffic. The Arctic supports hundreds of millions of seabirds, which feed upon a wide range of trophic levels among a broad spectrum of marine habitats. Studying the patterns and processes of seabird distributions at sea can identify critical habitats and help to monitor the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic changes. Using two databases of vessel-based survey data collected from 1988 to 2015 and covering a combined 185,000 linear km, we examined the marine distribution of seabirds in sub-arctic and Arctic waters between Canada and Greenland, an area covering over 5,000,000 km2. We developed a predictive model to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence the distribution of arctic seabirds in summer and autumn and identified existing areas of high density. Comparing these results to at-sea surveys conducted in the same waters from 1966 - 1987, we examined how seabird distribution has changed over the last six decades. Understanding how changes in the marine environment have led to changes in the marine distribution of seabirds provides the basis from which to predict how seabirds might respond to future changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem, which is particularly important in light of future development.
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