Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo
A statistical forecast of the occurrence of extreme climatic events was performed in the Colombian Caribbean Sea Basin (CMCC), through the so-called “return periods” (RP), estimated by adjusting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The correlation of extreme events with the North Atlant...
| Published in: | Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences |
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| Main Author: | |
| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | Spanish |
| Published: |
Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Meteorología
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78084 |
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ftuncolombiair:oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/78084 |
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Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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ftuncolombiair |
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Spanish |
| topic |
550 - Ciencias de la tierra 551 - Geología hidrología meteorología 986 - Colombia y Ecuador GEV extremos climáticos temperatura superficial del mar altura superficial del mar velocidad del viento ODP ENOS OAN climatic extremes Sea surfece level Sea Surface Height wind speed PDO ENSO NAO |
| spellingShingle |
550 - Ciencias de la tierra 551 - Geología hidrología meteorología 986 - Colombia y Ecuador GEV extremos climáticos temperatura superficial del mar altura superficial del mar velocidad del viento ODP ENOS OAN climatic extremes Sea surfece level Sea Surface Height wind speed PDO ENSO NAO Martínez Pedraza, Alexander Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| topic_facet |
550 - Ciencias de la tierra 551 - Geología hidrología meteorología 986 - Colombia y Ecuador GEV extremos climáticos temperatura superficial del mar altura superficial del mar velocidad del viento ODP ENOS OAN climatic extremes Sea surfece level Sea Surface Height wind speed PDO ENSO NAO |
| description |
A statistical forecast of the occurrence of extreme climatic events was performed in the Colombian Caribbean Sea Basin (CMCC), through the so-called “return periods” (RP), estimated by adjusting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The correlation of extreme events with the North Atlantic Oscillation (OAN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENOS) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ODP) was estimated. Monthly series of Sea Level Height (ANM), Sea Surface Temperature (TSM) and Wind Speed (VV) for the period 1960 - 2016 were used. In each analyzed series, the RP of the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile, corresponding respectively to the thresholds of the maximum extreme values (VEmax) and the minimum extreme values (VEmin), were estimated. It was concluded that the VEmax of the ANM can be overcome in less than PR = 3 years and the VEmin have a small probability of occurrence. It was evidenced that, in the TSM, the occurrence of VEmax in the southwestern zone is expected before PR = 3 years and in the north it could be expected between PR = 4 and 5 years. It was found that for the VV the VEmax in the north and the south are expected to be exceeded at least once before PR = 9 years and in the center of the region, after PR = 20 years. The PR of VEmin in VV predominate between PR = 7 and 8 years in the eastern zone and PR = 11 years in the eastern south. The correlation of extremes with the indices of the analyzed phenomena determined that only ENSO has significant associations, presented in the VEmax of ANM and the VEmin of TSM. Se realizó en la Cuenca del Mar Caribe Colombiano (CMCC) un pronóstico estadístico de la ocurrencia de eventos extremos climáticos, a través de los llamados “periodos de retorno” (PR), estimados mediante el ajuste de la distribución de Valores Extremos Generalizada (GEV). Se estimó la correlación de los eventos extremos con la Oscilación Atlántico Norte (OAN), El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y la Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico (ODP). Se utilizó series mensuales de la ... |
| author2 |
Villegas Bolaños, Nancy Liliana Universidad Nacional de Colombia CENIT |
| format |
Text |
| author |
Martínez Pedraza, Alexander |
| author_facet |
Martínez Pedraza, Alexander |
| author_sort |
Martínez Pedraza, Alexander |
| title |
Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| title_short |
Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| title_full |
Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| title_fullStr |
Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| title_sort |
modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el mar caribe colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo |
| publisher |
Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Meteorología |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78084 |
| long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-66.833,-66.833,-68.617,-68.617) |
| geographic |
Del Viento Pacific |
| geographic_facet |
Del Viento Pacific |
| genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
| genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
| op_relation |
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Análisis de la velocidad del viento en el mar Caribe. Boletín Científico CIOH, 13, 33–44. Andrade, C. (2001). Las corrientes superficiales en la cuenca de Colombia observadas con boyas de deriva. Revista de La Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, 25(96), 321–335. Andrade, C. A., & Barton, E. D. (2005). The Guajira upwelling system. Continental Shelf Research, 25(9), 1003–1022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.12.012 Andrade, C., & Barton, E. D. (2000). Eddy development and motion in the Caribbean Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(C11), 26191. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000300 Andrade, C., Barton, E. D., & Mooers, C. N. K. (2003). Evidence for an eastward flow along the Central and South American Caribbean Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 108(C6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001549 Balmaseda, M. A., Mogensen, K., & Weaver, A. T. (2013). Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. 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ftuncolombiair:oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/78084 2023-05-15T17:37:14+02:00 Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo Martínez Pedraza, Alexander Villegas Bolaños, Nancy Liliana Universidad Nacional de Colombia CENIT 2019-06-03 203 application/pdf https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78084 spa spa Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Meteorología Departamento de Geociencias Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá AghaKouchak, A., Easterling, D., Hsu, K., Schubert, S., & Sorooshian, S. (2013). Extremes in a changing climate: detection, analysis and uncertainty (1st ed., Vol. 65). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4479-0 AghaKouchak, A., & Nasrollahi, N. (2010). Semi-parametric and parametric inference of extreme value models for rainfall data. Water Resources Management, 24(6), 1229–1249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9493-3 Alvarez, R., Aguilera, J., Andrade, C. A., & Nowak, P. (1995). Caracterizacion general de la zona de surgencia en la guajira colombiana. Rev. Acad. Colornb. Cienc., 19(75), 679–694. Amador, J. A. (2008). The Intra-Americas Sea low-level jet: Overview and future research. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 153–188. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1446.012 Andrade, C. A. (2008). Cambios recientes del nivel del mar en Colombia. Deltas de Colombia: Morfodinámica y Vulnerabilidad Ante El Cambio Global, 103e122. Andrade, C. (1993). Análisis de la velocidad del viento en el mar Caribe. Boletín Científico CIOH, 13, 33–44. Andrade, C. (2001). Las corrientes superficiales en la cuenca de Colombia observadas con boyas de deriva. Revista de La Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, 25(96), 321–335. Andrade, C. A., & Barton, E. D. (2005). The Guajira upwelling system. Continental Shelf Research, 25(9), 1003–1022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.12.012 Andrade, C., & Barton, E. D. (2000). Eddy development and motion in the Caribbean Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(C11), 26191. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000300 Andrade, C., Barton, E. D., & Mooers, C. N. K. (2003). Evidence for an eastward flow along the Central and South American Caribbean Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 108(C6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001549 Balmaseda, M. A., Mogensen, K., & Weaver, A. T. (2013). Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139(674), 1132–1161. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063 Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., & Teugels, J. (2004). Statistics of extremes: theory and applications. John Wiley & Sons. Bernal, G., Poveda, G., Roldán, P., & Andrade, C. (2006). Patrones de variabilidad de las temperaturas superficiales del mar en la costa caribe colombiana. Ciencias de La Tierra, 30(115), 195–208. Church, J. a., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., … Unnikrishnan, A. S. (2013). Sea level change. In T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, … P. M. Midgley (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1137–1216). https://doi.org/10.1017/CB09781107415315.026 Church, J. A., White, N. J., Coleman, R., Lambeck, K., & Mitrovica, J. X. (2004). Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. Journal of Climate, 17(13), 2609–2625. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2609:EOTRDO>2.0.CO;2 Climate Prediction Center. (2000). Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index. Retrieved from https://data.noaa.gov/harvest/object/e9707083-6cb0-4c74-9e26-9a7e7cffd1de/html Coelho, C. a S., Ferro, C. a T., Stephenson, D. B., & Steinskog, D. J. (2008). Methods for Exploring Spatial and Temporal Variability of Extreme Events in Climate Data. Journal of Climate, 21(10), 2072–2092. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1781.1 Coles, S. G. (2001). An introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. In Springer Series in Statistics (1st ed.). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0 Cowpertwait, P. S. P., & Metcalfe, A. V. (2009). Introductory time series with R (1st ed.). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-88698-5 Derryberry, D. R. (2014). Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118593233 Deser, C., Alexander, M. A., Xie, S.-P., & Phillips, A. S. (2010). Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms. 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A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(9), 3999–4016. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20313 Matthew B. Alkire, Craig Lee, Eric D’Asaro, Mary Jane Perry, Nathan Briggs, Ivona Cetinic´, and A. G. (2014). Journal of Geophysical Research : Oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119(1), 6121–6139. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010105.Received Atribución-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ Acceso abierto info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY-ND 550 - Ciencias de la tierra 551 - Geología hidrología meteorología 986 - Colombia y Ecuador GEV extremos climáticos temperatura superficial del mar altura superficial del mar velocidad del viento ODP ENOS OAN climatic extremes Sea surfece level Sea Surface Height wind speed PDO ENSO NAO Otro info:eu-repo/semantics/other info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion 2019 ftuncolombiair https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1446.012 https://doi.org/10.1017/CB09781107415315.026 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118593233 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2 2023-01-29T01:04:27Z A statistical forecast of the occurrence of extreme climatic events was performed in the Colombian Caribbean Sea Basin (CMCC), through the so-called “return periods” (RP), estimated by adjusting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The correlation of extreme events with the North Atlantic Oscillation (OAN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENOS) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ODP) was estimated. Monthly series of Sea Level Height (ANM), Sea Surface Temperature (TSM) and Wind Speed (VV) for the period 1960 - 2016 were used. In each analyzed series, the RP of the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile, corresponding respectively to the thresholds of the maximum extreme values (VEmax) and the minimum extreme values (VEmin), were estimated. It was concluded that the VEmax of the ANM can be overcome in less than PR = 3 years and the VEmin have a small probability of occurrence. It was evidenced that, in the TSM, the occurrence of VEmax in the southwestern zone is expected before PR = 3 years and in the north it could be expected between PR = 4 and 5 years. It was found that for the VV the VEmax in the north and the south are expected to be exceeded at least once before PR = 9 years and in the center of the region, after PR = 20 years. The PR of VEmin in VV predominate between PR = 7 and 8 years in the eastern zone and PR = 11 years in the eastern south. The correlation of extremes with the indices of the analyzed phenomena determined that only ENSO has significant associations, presented in the VEmax of ANM and the VEmin of TSM. Se realizó en la Cuenca del Mar Caribe Colombiano (CMCC) un pronóstico estadístico de la ocurrencia de eventos extremos climáticos, a través de los llamados “periodos de retorno” (PR), estimados mediante el ajuste de la distribución de Valores Extremos Generalizada (GEV). Se estimó la correlación de los eventos extremos con la Oscilación Atlántico Norte (OAN), El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y la Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico (ODP). Se utilizó series mensuales de la ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia Del Viento ENVELOPE(-66.833,-66.833,-68.617,-68.617) Pacific Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1146 1 153 188 |