Modelos de pronóstico para eventos extremos en el Mar Caribe Colombiano identificados en el nivel del mar, temperatura superficial del mar y velocidad del viento, y su relación con fenómenos de interacción océano atmósfera de largo periodo

• Published in: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
• Main Author: Martínez Pedraza, Alexander
• Other Authors: Villegas Bolaños, Nancy Liliana, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, CENIT
• Format: Text
• Language: Spanish
• Published: Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Meteorología 2019
• Subjects: 550 - Ciencias de la tierra; 551 - Geología; hidrología; meteorología; 986 - Colombia y Ecuador; GEV; extremos climáticos; temperatura superficial del mar; altura superficial del mar; velocidad del viento; ODP; ENOS; OAN; climatic extremes; Sea surfece level; Sea Surface Height; wind speed; PDO; ENSO; NAO; Del Viento; Pacific; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78084

A statistical forecast of the occurrence of extreme climatic events was performed in the Colombian Caribbean Sea Basin (CMCC), through the so-called “return periods” (RP), estimated by adjusting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The correlation of extreme events with the North Atlantic Oscillation (OAN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENOS) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ODP) was estimated. Monthly series of Sea Level Height (ANM), Sea Surface Temperature (TSM) and Wind Speed (VV) for the period 1960 - 2016 were used. In each analyzed series, the RP of the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile, corresponding respectively to the thresholds of the maximum extreme values (VEmax) and the minimum extreme values (VEmin), were estimated. It was concluded that the VEmax of the ANM can be overcome in less than PR = 3 years and the VEmin have a small probability of occurrence. It was evidenced that, in the TSM, the occurrence of VEmax in the southwestern zone is expected before PR = 3 years and in the north it could be expected between PR = 4 and 5 years. It was found that for the VV the VEmax in the north and the south are expected to be exceeded at least once before PR = 9 years and in the center of the region, after PR = 20 years. The PR of VEmin in VV predominate between PR = 7 and 8 years in the eastern zone and PR = 11 years in the eastern south. The correlation of extremes with the indices of the analyzed phenomena determined that only ENSO has significant associations, presented in the VEmax of ANM and the VEmin of TSM. Se realizó en la Cuenca del Mar Caribe Colombiano (CMCC) un pronóstico estadístico de la ocurrencia de eventos extremos climáticos, a través de los llamados “periodos de retorno” (PR), estimados mediante el ajuste de la distribución de Valores Extremos Generalizada (GEV). Se estimó la correlación de los eventos extremos con la Oscilación Atlántico Norte (OAN), El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y la Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico (ODP). Se utilizó series mensuales de la ...