Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios

• Published in: Science of The Total Environment
• Main Authors: Chen, Yating, Liu, Aobo, Zhang, Zhihua, Hope, Chris, Crabbe, M. James C.
• Other Authors: Beijing Normal University, Shandong University, Cambridge University, University of Oxford, University of Bedfordshire
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2018
• Subjects: environment; climate change; global warming; Arctic; H223 Environmental Impact Assessment; Climate change; Global warming; permafrost
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10547/623052; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299

Under rapid Arctic warming, the vast amount of labile organic carbon stored in Arctic permafrost soils poses a potentially huge threat. Thawing permafrost will release hundreds of billion tons of soil carbon into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 and CH4 that would further intensify global warming and bring more challenges to human society. In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010-2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions. Our results show that in terms of net present value (NPV), the release of CO2 and CH4 from circum-Arctic permafrost will generate estimated net economic losses of US$2.5 trillion (5-95% range: 0.3-11.2 US$ trillion) under the RCP4.5-SPP1 scenario and US$12.7 trillion (5-95% range: 1.6-41.8 US$ trillion) under the RCP8.5-SPP3 scenario between 2010-2100, which contribute ~4.9% and ~6.4% respectively of net economic losses of global carbon emissions. Ms. Ref. No.: STOTEN-D-18-11999R1 Title: Economic Losses of Carbon Emissions from Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions under RCP-SSP Scenarios Journal: Science of the Total Environment Dear Professor Zhihua Zhang, I am pleased to inform you that your paper "Economic Losses of Carbon Emissions from Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions under RCP-SSP Scenarios" has been accepted for publication in STOTEN and forwarded to the publishers. Your accepted manuscript will now be transferred to our production department and work will begin on creation of the proof. If we need any additional information to create the proof, we will let you know. If not, you will be contacted again in the next few days with a request to approve the proof and to complete a number of online forms that are required for publication. For any production related questions please contact Pallavi Das(Journal Manager) at [e-mail]. There is no need to contact the editors. Thank you for giving us the ...