LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

• Main Authors: Zhu, Jiang, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Brady, Esther C., Gettelman, Andrew, Bacmeister, Julio T., Neale, Richard B., Poulsen, Christopher J., Shaw, Jonah K., McGraw, Zachary S., Kay, Jennifer E.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 2022
• Subjects: Community Earth System Model version 2; cloud parameterizations; cloud feedback; equilibrium climate sensitivity; Last Glacial Maximum; Geological Sciences; Science; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/172265; https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002776

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.Plain Language SummaryThe Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) shows a much higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) than its predecessor models (≤4°C), which, if true, implies a greater future warming than previously thought and a more severe challenge for climate adaptation and mitigation. It is critical to determine whether the high ...