Aerosol forcing masks and delays the formation of the North-Atlantic warming hole by three decades
The North-Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North-Atlantic during an anthropogenic-driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key r...
| Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090778 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:21b034f4-aec0-4976-aeeb-6199d34499f5 |
| Summary: | The North-Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North-Atlantic during an anthropogenic-driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key role of the North-Atlantic surface temperatures in setting the Northern-Hemisphere climate, the mechanisms behind the NAWH are still not fully understood. Using state-of-the-art climate models, we show that anthropogenic aerosol forcing opposes the formation of the NAWH (by leading to a local warming) and delays its emergence by about 30 years. In agreement with previous studies, we also demonstrate that the relative warming of the North-Atlantic under aerosol forcing is due to changes in ocean heat fluxes, rather than air-sea fluxes. These results suggest that the predicted reduction in aerosol forcing during the 21st century may accelerate the formation of the NAWH. |
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