North Sea cod and climate change - modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large-scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000-2050 from the Hadley General Circulation M...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global Change Biology
Main Authors: Clark, R A, Fox, Clive, Viner, D, Livermore, M
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2003
Subjects:
Environmental Sciences
RECRUITMENT
VARIABILITY
ARCTO-NORWEGIAN COD
Ecology
FISHERIES
PREDATION
GADUS-MORHUA L
TERM CHANGES
ATLANTIC
Biodiversity Conservation
GROWTH
ZOOPLANKTON
Gadus morhua
Online Access:https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/3578207e-98dc-4dd6-a719-935688d93c5b
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00685.x
Description
Summary:In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large-scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000-2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.

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