Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America
We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple r...
| Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/309292/ https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/309292/1/309292.pdf |
| Summary: | We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple regression procedure for each glacier. We find four distinct glaciological zones with regard to their climatic controls: (1) The mass-balance of the Outer Tropics glaciers is linked to temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PCC ⩽ 0.6), (2) glaciers of the Desert Andes are mainly controlled by zonal wind intensity (PCC ⩽ 0.9) and the Antarctic Oscillation (PCC ⩽0.6), (3) the mass-balance of the Central Andes glaciers is primarily correlated with precipitation anomalies (PCC ⩽ 0.8), and (4) the glacier of the Fuegian Andes is controlled by winter precipitation (PCC ≈ 0.7) and summer temperature (PCC ≈ −0.9). Mass-balance data in the Lakes District and Patagonian Andes zones, where most glaciers are located, are too sparse for a robust detection of synoptic-scale climatic controls. The EGMs yield R2 values of ~ 0.45 on average and ⩽ 0.74 for the glaciers of the Desert Andes. The EGMs presented here do not consider glacier dynamics or geometry and are therefore only suitable for short-term predictions. |
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