Radiocarbon test for demographic events in written and oral history

• Main Authors: Edinborough, K, Porcic, M, Martindale, A, Brown, TJ, Supernant, K, Ames, KM
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: NATL ACAD SCIENCES 2017
• Subjects: historical record; oral history; archaeology; simulation; radiocarbon; Canada; Pacific; British Columbia; Rupert; Prince Rupert; Prince Rupert Harbour; First Nations; Tsimshian; Tsimshian*
• Online Access: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10059943/1/KE_Revised_PNAS_GAP_26_8_2017.pdf; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10059943/

We extend an established simulation-based method to test for significant short-duration (1–2 centuries) demographic events known from one documented historical and one oral historical context. Case study 1 extrapolates population data from the Western historical tradition using historically derived demographic data from the catastrophic European Black Death/bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis). We find a corresponding statistically significant drop in absolute population using an extended version of a previously published simulation method. Case study 2 uses this refined simulation method to test for a settlement gap identified in oral historical records of descendant Tsimshian First Nations communities from the Prince Rupert Harbour region of the Pacific Northwest region of British Columbia, Canada. Using a regional database of n = 523 radiocarbon dates, we find a significant drop in relative population using the extended simulation-based method consistent with Tsimshian oral records. We conclude that our technical refinement extends the utility of radiocarbon simulation methods and can provide a rigorous test of demographic predictions derived from a range of historical sources.