Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response o...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/a7889b82-4496-4b3d-8b01-a3c425de7302 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/a7889b82-4496-4b3d-8b01-a3c425de7302 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091781611&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
Summary: | Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments. |
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