A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data
Although virtually all experts agree that CO 2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ide...
Published in: | Global Environmental Change |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/72163897/GECLskyetalInpress.pdf https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/75190184/LskyGECBlindTestOSM.pdf https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/17ejywebeb6kk19odghem68one https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/7aeind9zcl461l5hm8dju0v05 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 2024-01-28T10:03:50+01:00 A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data Lewandowsky, Stephan Ballard, Tim Oberauer, Klaus Benestad, Rasmus E. 2016-07 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1983/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/72163897/GECLskyetalInpress.pdf https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/75190184/LskyGECBlindTestOSM.pdf https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/17ejywebeb6kk19odghem68one https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/7aeind9zcl461l5hm8dju0v05 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Lewandowsky , S , Ballard , T , Oberauer , K & Benestad , R E 2016 , ' A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data ' , Global Environmental Change , vol. 39 , pp. 91-97 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory Memory /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog TeDCog Climate change Climate change denial Public discourse about climate change article 2016 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 2024-01-04T23:48:57Z Although virtually all experts agree that CO 2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming University of Bristol: Bristol Research Arctic Global Environmental Change 39 91 97 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory Memory /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog TeDCog Climate change Climate change denial Public discourse about climate change |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory Memory /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog TeDCog Climate change Climate change denial Public discourse about climate change Lewandowsky, Stephan Ballard, Tim Oberauer, Klaus Benestad, Rasmus E. A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory Memory /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog TeDCog Climate change Climate change denial Public discourse about climate change |
description |
Although virtually all experts agree that CO 2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lewandowsky, Stephan Ballard, Tim Oberauer, Klaus Benestad, Rasmus E. |
author_facet |
Lewandowsky, Stephan Ballard, Tim Oberauer, Klaus Benestad, Rasmus E. |
author_sort |
Lewandowsky, Stephan |
title |
A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
title_short |
A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
title_full |
A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
title_fullStr |
A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data |
title_sort |
blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/80c3456a-fdcc-4a73-a527-522b65221a48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/72163897/GECLskyetalInpress.pdf https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/75190184/LskyGECBlindTestOSM.pdf https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/17ejywebeb6kk19odghem68one https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/7aeind9zcl461l5hm8dju0v05 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Lewandowsky , S , Ballard , T , Oberauer , K & Benestad , R E 2016 , ' A Blind Expert Test of Contrarian Claims about Climate Data ' , Global Environmental Change , vol. 39 , pp. 91-97 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.013 |
container_title |
Global Environmental Change |
container_volume |
39 |
container_start_page |
91 |
op_container_end_page |
97 |
_version_ |
1789329311139889152 |