Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO 2 world

Continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, ra...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Couce, Elena M, Irvine, Pete J, Gregoire, Lauren, Ridgwell, Andy J, Hendy, E.J.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2013
Subjects:
geoengineering
coral reef ecosystems
Species Distribution Modeling
Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling
Solar Radiation Management
CLIMATE-CHANGE
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
CARBON-DIOXIDE
GENERATION
SURFACE
EARTH
Ocean acidification
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/1983/49f005c4-efa5-498a-ace4-e2b996a7251e
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/49f005c4-efa5-498a-ace4-e2b996a7251e
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50340
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/17051586/Couce_2013_grl50340.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50340/abstract
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Summary:Continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow-water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various Representative Concentration Pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m 2 . The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m 2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. ‘Optimal’ mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m 2 because tropical SSTs over-cool in a fully-geoengineered (i.e. pre-industrial global mean temperature) world. Key Points: • Large reductions in reef habitat suitability under net radiative forcing >3 W/m 2 • Rising SSTs are greater threat for tropical coral reefs than ocean acidification • Solar Radiation Management may help maintain coral reef habitat over near-term

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