Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling?
The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state‐of‐the‐art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictabil...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
John Wiley and Sons
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895 |
id |
ftubkarlsruhe:oai:EVASTAR-Karlsruhe.de:1000123895 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubkarlsruhe:oai:EVASTAR-Karlsruhe.de:1000123895 2023-05-15T13:23:47+02:00 Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? Wang, Shaoyin Liu, Jiping Cheng, Xiao Kerzenmacher, Tobias Braesicke, Peter 2020-09-21 https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895 eng eng John Wiley and Sons info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL089700 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0094-8276 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1944-8007 https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Geophysical research letters, 47 (18), e2020GL089700 ISSN: 0094-8276, 1944-8007 fault slip fluid injection ddc:550 Earth sciences info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550 doc-type:article Text info:eu-repo/semantics/article article 2020 ftubkarlsruhe https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089700 2022-03-23T17:16:47Z The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state‐of‐the‐art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictability during austral spring is higher than in the other seasons with lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The spring ASL predictability has an ACC of about 0.6 with lead times of 1–2 weeks and about 0.44 with lead times of 3–4 weeks. The enhanced ASL predictability during austral spring is mainly due to the strengthening of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, coincident with a weakened stratospheric polar night jet and increased wave‐mean flow interactions in the stratosphere. This study demonstrates that the stratosphere‐troposphere coupling provides an important source of predictability for the Antarctic surface weather and climate on S2S ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic polar night KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technologie) Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 47 18 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technologie) |
op_collection_id |
ftubkarlsruhe |
language |
English |
topic |
fault slip fluid injection ddc:550 Earth sciences info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550 |
spellingShingle |
fault slip fluid injection ddc:550 Earth sciences info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550 Wang, Shaoyin Liu, Jiping Cheng, Xiao Kerzenmacher, Tobias Braesicke, Peter Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
topic_facet |
fault slip fluid injection ddc:550 Earth sciences info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550 |
description |
The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state‐of‐the‐art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictability during austral spring is higher than in the other seasons with lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The spring ASL predictability has an ACC of about 0.6 with lead times of 1–2 weeks and about 0.44 with lead times of 3–4 weeks. The enhanced ASL predictability during austral spring is mainly due to the strengthening of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, coincident with a weakened stratospheric polar night jet and increased wave‐mean flow interactions in the stratosphere. This study demonstrates that the stratosphere‐troposphere coupling provides an important source of predictability for the Antarctic surface weather and climate on S2S ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Shaoyin Liu, Jiping Cheng, Xiao Kerzenmacher, Tobias Braesicke, Peter |
author_facet |
Wang, Shaoyin Liu, Jiping Cheng, Xiao Kerzenmacher, Tobias Braesicke, Peter |
author_sort |
Wang, Shaoyin |
title |
Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
title_short |
Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
title_full |
Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
title_fullStr |
Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling? |
title_sort |
is enhanced predictability of the amundsen sea low in subseasonal to seasonal hindcasts linked to stratosphere‐troposphere coupling? |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral The Antarctic |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic polar night |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic polar night |
op_source |
Geophysical research letters, 47 (18), e2020GL089700 ISSN: 0094-8276, 1944-8007 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL089700 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0094-8276 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1944-8007 https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089700 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
18 |
_version_ |
1766375397076762624 |