Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling?

The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state‐of‐the‐art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictabil...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Wang, Shaoyin, Liu, Jiping, Cheng, Xiao, Kerzenmacher, Tobias, Braesicke, Peter
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: John Wiley and Sons 2020
Subjects:
fault slip
fluid injection
ddc:550
Earth sciences
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550
Amundsen Sea
Antarctic
Austral
The Antarctic
Antarc*
polar night
Online Access:https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000123895
Description
Summary:The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state‐of‐the‐art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictability during austral spring is higher than in the other seasons with lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The spring ASL predictability has an ACC of about 0.6 with lead times of 1–2 weeks and about 0.44 with lead times of 3–4 weeks. The enhanced ASL predictability during austral spring is mainly due to the strengthening of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, coincident with a weakened stratospheric polar night jet and increased wave‐mean flow interactions in the stratosphere. This study demonstrates that the stratosphere‐troposphere coupling provides an important source of predictability for the Antarctic surface weather and climate on S2S ...

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