| Summary: | Ships operating in ice-covered waters experience intense loads from ice features, particularly multiyear ice. Therefore, their structures have to be able to withstand these loads, making structural design paramount. Current formulations of ice class rules do not fully account for the probabilistic nature of ice loads, i.e. scale effects for local ice pressures captured in fullscale measurements. Furthermore, ice class rules do not consider route-specific ice conditions when calculating the design load, i.e. the exposure of the vessel to ice crushing determined by the number and duration of rams. An approach to arctic ship design based on probabilistic methods was developed by Jordaan and co-workers in 1993 and is described in this paper. The approach is used to estimate extreme design loads based on the annual interaction events and the design strategy (target exceedence criteria). The objective of this paper is to select an appropriate ice class for a vessel navigating along the northern sea route, and to compare the design requirements with those determined using the probabilistic approach based on measured data and expected exposure. Local hull pressures have been measured using the USCGC Polar Sea for a range of ice conditions including first year and multi-year ice. Impact conditions similar to those expected along the Northern Sea route were selected and corresponding pressurearea parameters used for input into the probabilistic approach discussed above. This paper will compare the design and response of an exemplary stiffened panel using the described approach to requirements given in Finnish Swedish Ice Class Rules. A case study structure will be analyzed using Finite Element Method for a chosen exposure scenario and target safety level.
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