Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections

• Published in: Surveys in Geophysics
• Main Authors: van de Wal, R. S.W. (author), Zhang, X. (author), Minobe, S. (author), Jevrejeva, S. (author), Riva, R.E.M. (author), Little, C. (author), Richter, K. (author), Palmer, M. D. (author)
• Format: Review
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Coastal sea level; Uncertainties; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0dfda65f-88e6-4186-9074-5a1d6e36af19; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3

Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides. Physical and Space Geodesy