Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105 000 m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully pr...
| Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1191/2016/tc-10-1191-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/article/da808b4ac0f048c7885955a03192983f |
| Summary: | A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105 000 m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local authorities to take the necessary safety measures. The break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time. |
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