| Summary: | A 2D numerical model has been developed to assess the impacts of groundwater flow on permafrost dynamics under a warming climate in northern Québec. The conceptual model developed herein focuses on a small permafrost mound located in the discontinuous permafrost zone near the Inuit community of Umiujaq, Nunavik, Québec. At the study site, permafrost is found in marine silt overlying a deep confined sand and gravel aquifer with active groundwater flow. To better understand the cryo-hydrogeological system, the HEATFLOW numerical code was used to simulate coupled groundwater flow and heat transport by conduction and advection along a 2D cross-section through the permafrost mound and oriented along the assumed direction of groundwater flow. The model was first calibrated manually using temperature profiles in the permafrost mound measured along thermistor cables over the past 10 years and using observed heat fluxes near the ground surface. A second simulation was then performed assuming only conductive heat transfer and neglecting groundwater flow. A comparison between both simulations reveals the important role of groundwater flow on permafrost dynamics at the Umiujaq site. As groundwater flow brings warmer water from recharge areas into the deep confined aquifer, it contributes significantly to warming of the system relative to conduction alone, and significantly decreases permafrost thickness. However, the simulation showed that thermal energy is also lost along the flowpath below the permafrost base which induces a cooling in the discharge areas in comparison to the recharge areas. The future system behavior is then predicted by taking into account a climate change scenario based on increases in temperature and precipitation. The predictive simulation suggests that permafrost will thaw from the base at a rate of about 80 cm per year, and from the permafrost table at a rate of 12 cm per year, until completely thawed by about 2040. Un modèle numérique bidimensionnel a été développé afin d’évaluer l’impact de ...
|
|---|