| Summary: | At high northern latitudes, climate warming will induce permafrost degradation that will modify local and regional hydrogeological systems and ecosystem functionality, as well as increase the release of carbon and methane to the environment. Northern infrastructure, in particular roads and embankments, will also experience significant degradation. In this study, numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport have been developed to assess the effects of realistic combinations of hydrogeological parameters and surface conditions on the temporal and spatial evolution of permafrost degradation in a cold-region paved terrain, at the Iqaluit airport, Nunavut. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding 2D numerical model is calibrated to the observed groundwater flow and thermal regime. Future climate warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system, as well as thaw settlements are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Under climate warming, the surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, and significantly contributes to positive feedback between the hydrogeological flow system and the frozen ground. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. The effect of the unsaturated zone on permafrost thaw was most important in finer soil where overlain by snow. The magnitude of thaw settlement also significantly increases with a snow cover. The most vulnerable areas to permafrost thaw settlement along a road or taxiway embankment would be the snow-covered shoulders, as well as the transition ...
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