Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

• Published in: PLoS ONE
• Main Authors: Chambers, Lynda E, Altwegg, Res, Barbraud, Christophe, Barnard, Phoebe, Beaumont, Linda J, Crawford, Robert J M, Durant, Joel M, Hughes, Lesley, Keatley, Marie R, Low, Matt, Morellato, Patricia C, Poloczanska, Elvira S, Ruoppolo, Valeria, Vanstreels, Ralph E T, Woehler, Eric J, Wolfaardt, Anton C
• Other Authors: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Kirstenbosch Research Centre, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Animal Demography Unit, University of Cape Town, Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town-Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, Department of Biological Sciences North Ryde, Macquarie University, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Oslo, University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO)-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Oslo, University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science, University of Melbourne, Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Laboratorio de Fenologia, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho = São Paulo State University (UNESP), Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, International Fund for Animal Welfare, Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology, University of São Paulo (USP), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Horbat (IMAS), University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS), Joint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2013
• Subjects: envir; geo; Antarctic; New Zealand; The Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00917050

International audience Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.