| Summary: | Specialization: Transportation Engineering Degree: Master of Science Abstract: The Mackenzie River is a major freight transportation route serving many remote northern Canadian communities and mining sites. The river is only navigable during the summer and early fall months, when it is clear of ice. However, the water conditions of this river have changed significantly in recent years, and are expected to continue to do so into the future, resulting in increased uncertainty for waterway transport. This thesis discusses a climate change adaptation measure for freight schedule planning on the Mackenzie River. The purpose of this research is to provide some guidance to shipping companies, customers, and the government on how shipping patterns may need to evolve in order to efficiently adapt to future climate conditions. In this research, we first analyse historical freight volume data and forecast the future volumes based on these data. Historical volumes are provided by Northern Transportation Company Limited (NTCL), a major shipping company on the Mackenzie River. Freight is categorized into two major classes according to historical volume data: fuel and dry cargos. Dry cargos include items such as construction materials and equipment, personal vehicles, etc. The seasonal Kendall trend test is applied to assess the monotonic trends (increase or decrease) existed in the freight volumes. Significant decreasing trends over time (from 2002 to 2015) at a 99% confidence level are identified in total freight volumes. Specifically, volume decreases after 2008 and in 2010 are found. One major reason for the volume decrease after 2008 is that since 2008 summer, another shipping company expanded their sealift services to Kitikmeot communities via the Northwest Passage, resulting in decreased volumes to Tuktoyaktuk and Arctic Region from NTCL. However, no documents were found to report reasons of the decrease in 2010. Checking historical water level data at Fort Good Hope, the water levels in 2010 were found to be relatively ...
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