The role of energy in Russia's foreign policy : a diplomatic history (1873~2015)

• Main Author: 曾麗明;Tseng, Li-Ming
• Other Authors: 淡江大學歐洲研究所博士班, 馬良文; Ma, Liang-Wen
• Language: English
• Published: 2017
• Subjects: EU and Central Asia;EU Energy Security;EU-Russian Relations;Oil and Soviet Hegemony;Oil and WWI Alliance;Russia and Central Asia;United States Utilitarianism;石油和第一次世界大戰聯盟;石油和蘇聯霸權;俄羅斯和中亞地區;美國家功利主義;歐盟和中亞地區;歐盟-俄羅斯關係;歐盟能源安全; Arctic
• Online Access: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/113931; http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/bitstream/987654321/113931/1/index.html

博士 巴庫的石油工業發展始於 1873 年，自此之后，世界上對俄羅斯石油的 需求越來越高，俄羅斯作為石油生產國亦需要將生產出的大量石油向外國市場 出口。基於歷史事件，政府干預以贏得或捍衛世界市場份額，實際上，與工業 家建立戰略夥伴關係是不可避免的，如金融，貿易支持，商業機會等。由於石 油成為近代經濟發展的總和，所以消費國苦苦爭取獲得石油貿易，石油貿易是 國家締結經濟關係或貿易協定中的對外事務的一部分。由此，我們見證了叢林 法則，因為它是贏得市場份額或供應份額的適者，同樣，如果能在採購，銷售 及運輸等方面提高利益，生產者和消費國就會傾向於合作。 總括而言，俄羅斯石油工業的發展對國家政治發展產生了積極影響，因 為石油貿易資助經濟，俄羅斯的社會主義實驗持續了七十年；帝國主義作為供 應部分鞏固了東方集團的效忠；燃氣公用事業系統對後蘇聯俄羅斯是十分重要 的。負面的是，在巴庫工業的框架下，共產主義運動增加，使沙皇政府垮台； 向東方集團補貼石油令預算緊張是蘇聯解體的部分原因；石油經濟帶來經濟自 由落體。其次，石油貿易影響了世界歷史一百三十年；在第一次世界大戰前， 它加強了英國、俄羅斯和法國的關係，從而維護了他們在巴爾乾地區的帝國設 計和商業利益；商業否認推動德國投資羅馬尼亞和中東，完善了與中央大國的 聯盟；在 1905 年的日俄戰爭期間，與美國標準油的市場競爭使日本受惠。第 一次世界大戰後石油交易有利重新吞併高加索地區，而在第二次世界大戰後， 蘇聯成為歐洲主要的天然氣供應商，導致持續的冷戰 - 衝突源於後蘇聯能源 環境，俄羅斯必須捍衛她作為主要能源供應商的地位。 The development of Baku oil industry commenced in 1873, since then, Russian oil as a product was increasingly needed by the world giving way to market demand and Russia as a producer needed a foreign market to export voluminous production output. Based on historical events, government intervened to win or defend world market share, in effect, strategic partnership with industrialists was inevitable such as financial, trade support, business opportunities, and others. As oil became the sum total of economic development in the late modern period, thus, consuming states bitterly campaigned to obtain it and so oil trade was a part of external affairs such that economic relations or trade agreements were concluded. Thus, we witnessed the law of the jungle as it is the fittest who shall win market share or supply share, likewise, producers and consuming states tend to cooperate if it would raise their interests in matters of procurement, sales, shipment. In conclusion, the development of Russian oil industry impacted national political development – positively, socialist experiment in Russia sustained for seven decades as oil trade financed the economy; imperialism as supply partly consolidated East Bloc allegiance; gas utility system proved crucial for post-Soviet Russia. Negatively, the fall of Tsarist government as communist movement grew in the framework of Baku industry;Soviet dissolution partly due to budget strain in subsidizing oil to the East Bloc; economic free fall due to petro economy. Secondly, oil trade impacted world history for a hundred thirty years; in pre-WWI, it strengthened British-Russo-Franco relations and so safeguarded their imperial design in the Balkans and business interests; business denial pushed Germany to invest in Romania and Middle East which partly consummated alliance with Central Powers; market competition with Standard Oil paved for America to favour Japan during Russo-Japan War in 1905. Post WWI oil trade paved for diplomatic ties and re-annexation of Caucasus, and in post WWII, the USSR became Europe main gas supplier and said dependency laid the seeds of continuing Cold War – the world in conflict due to post-Soviet energy environment and as Russia must defend her status as a major supplier. I. Introduction 1 I.1. Background 1 I. 2 Research Question 3 I.3. Research Purposes 4 I.4. Literature Review 4 I.5. Analytical Framework 8 I.6. Methodology 10 I.7. Research Plan 14 I.8. Research Outcome 16 I.9. Research scope and limitation 17 II. The Rise of Russia as World Supplier 18 II.1.1. Oil Development during Tsarist capitalism (1880-1914) 19 II.1.2. Development during Socialist period 24 II.1.3. Yeltsin Devolution to Putin Re-seizure 41 III. Russia’s Oil and Gas Supply to Europe, Its Impact on International Relations 50 III.1.1. Pre-WWI Relations among Powers (1880-1914) 51 III.2.1. In between Two World Wars (1917-1945) 60 III.3.1.1. Soviet-East Relations (1945-1991, the USSR) 65 III.3.1.2. East-West Relations (1945-1991, the USSR) 74 III.3.1.3. Arab Producers and the Soviet Connection 87 IV. Petro State Russia Nemesis (1991-2015, Post Cold War) 90 IV.1. Introduction 91 IV.2.1. Petro State Nemesis: United States of America Unilateralism 92 IV.2.2. Petro State Nemesis: European Union and Energy Security 103 IV.2.3. Petro State Nemesis: Former Soviet Union 114 V. Petro State Russia: Defending the Market Race 125 V.1.1. Winning over the Former Soviet Republics 126 V.2.1 Alliance with China 139 V.2.2. Call on Turkey 145 V.2.3. In Line of Fire in Syria 153 VI. Conclusion: Russian Oil Supply, Interpolating its Historical Impact for a Hundred Thirty Years 162 VI.1 Tsar Missed Opportunity (1880-1914) 163 VI.2. Western Democracies and their Failures (1917-1945) 165 VI.3. Western Democracies and their Failures (1945-1991) 168 VI. 4. U.S. Unilateralism and Petro State Russia (1991-2015) 171 VI. 5. The future 173 Bibliography 178 Diagram, Maps, Diagrams and Charts Diagram 2-1: Modern Fuel Industry Three Operational Pillars 20 Diagram 2-2: Energy Decision Making in the Soviet Union 39 Diagram 2-3: The Cannibalization of Soviet Oil Industry 44 Chart 2-1: Investment Statistics 22 Chart 2-2: Production Statistics, 1881-1927 29 Chart 2-3: Soviet Oil Industry Milestones and Production Statistics under Five Year Plan 33 Chart 2-4: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Russian and Gas Sector 47 Chart 3-1 Oil Industry Contribution to American Economy 54 Chart 3-2: Warship tonnage, 1880-1914 58 Chart 3-3: Germany volume of stock with and without Stalin assistance 65 Chart 3-4: Romanian Equipment as a Share of Total Soviet Oil Equipment Imports 68 Chart 3-5: Soviet Oil Prices 70 Chart 3-6: East Europe Import from the Mid-East 70 Chart 3-7: Communist States Import Data of Soviet Oil and Oil Products 71 Chart 3-8: Eastern European Dependence on Soviet Oil 72 Chart 3-9: Share of Eastern Europe in Gross Soviet Energy Exports, 1970-1987 73 Chart 3-10: Trend in crude oil ownership, 1950-1979 76 Chart 3-11: Mid-East States Production Increase, Iran Crisis 76 Chart 2-1: Investment Statistics 22 Chart 2-2: Production Statistics, 1881-1927 29 Chart 2-3: Soviet Oil Industry Milestones and Production Statistics under Five Year Plan 33 Chart 2-4: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Russian and Gas Sector 47 Chart 3-1 Oil Industry Contribution to American Economy 54 Chart 3-2: Warship tonnage, 1880-1914 58 Chart 3-3: Germany volume of stock with and without Stalin assistance 65 Chart 3-4: Romanian Equipment as a Share of Total Soviet Oil Equipment Imports 68 Chart 3-5: Soviet Oil Prices 70 Chart 3-6: East Europe Import from the Mid-East 70 Chart 3-7: Communist States Import Data of Soviet Oil and Oil Products 71 Chart 3-8: Eastern European Dependence on Soviet Oil 72 Chart 3-9: Share of Eastern Europe in Gross Soviet Energy Exports, 1970-1987 73 Chart 3-10: Trend in crude oil ownership, 1950-1979 76 Chart 3-11: Mid-East States Production Increase, Iran Crisis 76 Chart 3-12: Production Change: September-November 1973 77 Chart 3-13: World oil supply disruptions, 1951 to 1992 81 Chart 3-14: Real Price of Oil and Major Disruptions in World Oil Supply, 1950-2008 81 Chart 3-15: Soviet Exports to Western Europe 82 Chart 3-16: USSR: Hard Currency Energy Export Earnings 83 Chart 3-17: Soviet Oil Sales Volume and Value 84 Chart 3-18: Trend of Soviet Gas Exports to Europe, 1970–2001 85 Chart 3-19: Soviet Imports of Equipment Related to the Gas, Oil and Oil-Refining Industries, 1970-1987 86 Chart 4-1: Gazpom Export Data to EU 105 Chart 4-2: EU Sources of Fossil Fuels 112 Chart 4-3: Europe Gas Imports, actual flows and capacity in 2012 112 Chart 4-4: The Average Annual Gas Price for Individual EU Member States 113 Chart 4-5: Volume of Russian fuel transited via Belarus 115 Chart 4-6: Russian Gas Shipment via Ukraine 116 Chart 4-7: Russia selling price in comparison 118 Chart 4-8: Russia’s selling price to Ukraine from year 2003 to 2008 121 Chart 4-9: Average Contribution of Oil-Gas Sector in Caspian Economies 2002~2007 122 Chart 5-1: TANAP, TAP, TCP Pipelines, An Overview 137 Chart 6-1: Romanian Oil Production, Evolution of Exports 171 Map 2-1: Soviet Union Petroleum Deposits and Pipelines 38 Map 4-1: Albania Map 99 Map 4-2: PNAC Plan 102 Map 5-1: Nord Stream 136 Map 5-2: Southern Corridor Natural Gas Pipeline 138 Map 5-3: China Imports and Export of Natural Gas Data 144 Map 5-4: Turkey-Israel Energy Corridor 152 Map 5-5: Map of South Pars and North Field 154 Map 5-6: Map of Competing Qatar and Iran Pipeline Route 154 Map 5-7: Pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean 161 學號: 897290028, 學年度: 105