A study of interactions among Russia, China, and Taiwan under the framework of strategic triangle theory, 1992-2012

• Main Author: 柯妲妮;Komarova, Tatiana
• Other Authors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班, 翁明賢; Wong, Ming-hsien
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: 戰略三角理論;建構主義;俄羅斯的亞洲外交政策;俄中台關係;美國因素;Strategic triangle theory;Constructivism;Asian vector of Russian Foreign Policy;Russia-Sino-Taiwan relations;US factor; Pacific; Quadrangle; The Quadrangle; Arctic; Siberia
• Online Access: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/104893; http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/bitstream/987654321/104893/1/index.html

博士 當代有部分國家之間的關係是被忽視的，然而矛盾的是其關係同時據有發展的潛力，向是中華民國與俄羅斯聯邦之間的關係。本文致力於探討台俄之間的合作關係，並進一步的探討台灣的國家利益與其在中俄關係之間所扮演之角色，尤其是台俄之間在經濟之間有著極大的發展潛力與現實地緣政治下的關聯。 台俄關係研究的重要性在於能更加的使雙方相互認識，藉由辨識出互動中的強弱方與試圖尋找出雙方未來在共同利益上能合作的領域。俄羅斯不但與中國大陸在國界上相互接壤，同時與北京有著戰略夥伴關係，導因於「一中政策」下的原則，因此，使得台俄關係更加有趣。 為了探索行為者三方之間的關係，藉由Lowell Dittmer的戰略三角理論，將三邊關係解構至雙邊互動，使得三邊賽局關係的評估更為容易與嚴謹。另外，建構三方關係必須同時注重發展雙邊與三角關係，才能夠創造穩定的三角關係。值得一提的是，兩邊的關係會影響到第三方的關係，這絕對是影響三角關係的不穩定因素，因為其可能影響雙邊關係中之價值或對稱性。而且，筆者透過研究發現Lowell Dittmer的戰略三角理論可以進一步發展至戰略四角關係，也因而藉由理解戰略四角裡的三角關係型態，將有助於分析俄羅斯國家利益之所在。 There are some countries in the modern world, those relations have been so ignored and contradicted and at the same time have a great potential for large-scale and mutually beneficial development, as relations between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Russian Federation. The dissertation is dedicated to explore not only the characteristics of Taipei-Moscow cooperation, but examine the new, yet unexplored areas of the development of the process, which is the scope of the national interests of Taiwan and the role of the Island in Sino-Russian relations. Notably, that undeveloped, however with a great potential Russia-Taiwan economic relations forming a sphere, the relevance of the study of which due to new geopolitical reality is obvious. A study of Moscow-Taipei relations is important to learn in order to fill the gap in knowledge about each other; for identifying strong and weak sides of interactions; and for finding out the overlapping areas of mutual interest that would help for further collaboration between two entities. Russia is not only share a common border with China, but also a strategic partner of Beijing, which is following the main aspect of the partnership – a “one-China” principle, which makes the study of Taiwan-Russian relations even more interesting, due to mandatory being learned from the lens of Sino-Russian relationships. In order to explore the trilateral relations among players, the theory of strategic triangle of Lowell Dittmer has been used. Through detaching trilateral relations into bilateral, made the evaluation of trilateral game easier on one hand and from the other hand, more scrupulous. Besides, building the trilateral relations without focusing of developing bilateral bonds among triangle relations, almost impossible to create the stable triangular relations with any case scenario. It is worth to mention, that the relations of each player in a bilateral relations toward a third player is the definitely triangular unstable element in the issue, which could influence on the value or/and on the symmetry of the first relations. What’s more, the author have realized that the theory of the strategic triangle of Lowell Dittmer could be developed into the so-called strategic quadrangle, through stimulating the function of a non-revitalize triangle within the quadrangle could serve Russia’s interests more effectively. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement . ii Table of Contents …………………………………………………………….…….………. vi List of Abbreviations ……………………………………………………….……….…….… .x List of Tables ………………………………………………………………….………. .……. xii List of Schemes ………………………………………………………………………………. xiv List of Graphs …………………………………………………………………………. .…… .xv List of Maps ……………………………………………………………………………….…. xvi Chapter I. Introduction …………………………………………………………….….…….… 1 1.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………….….….….…. 1 1.1.1. Research Motives……………………………………………………….…….….…. 1 1.1.2. Research Objective…………………………………………………….….….……. . 3 1.2. Literature Review ……………………………………………………………….…….…….4 1.2.1. Sources and Research Materials……………………………………………….…. 4 2.2.2. On Overview of Significant Literature…………………………………….….…. 6 1.3. Research Methods……………………………………………………….…………….…. 16 1.3.1. Research Methodology……………………………………….………………….…16 1.3.2. Research Questions and Hypothesis …………………………….…………….….21 1.4. Organization of Research……………………………………………….……………….…. 23 1.4.1. Theoretical Framework …………………………………………….………………. 23 1.4.2. Analytical Framework ………………………………………………………………43 1.4.3. Structure of Dissertation …………………………………………………………….49 Chapter II. Historical Excurse to the Sino-Russian Relations; Russia - Taiwan Ties and China-Taiwan Interactions …………………………………………………………….……. 50 2.1. The ebb and flow in relations between Russia and China ………………………….……. 50 2.1.1. The Mongol complex and yellow menace…. ………………………………….…… 57 2.1.2. Everlasting friendship ……………………………………………….………….….…60 2.2.3. Armed confrontation along the shared border ………………….……….….…….…61 2.2. Russian - Taiwanese Ties ……………………………………………………….….…….72 2.2.1. Early ROC-USSR Connections ……………………………………………….…….75 2.2.2. Mutual influence without direct contact ….…….…………………………….……78 2.2.3. Initial Unofficial ROC-USSR Rapprochement ………………………….…….……81 2.3 History of China-Taiwan Interactions ………………………….………………….….….85 2.3.1. The First and the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis ………………….……………. . .….87 3.2.2. The “1992 Consensus” …………………………………………………………… 101 3.2.3. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis ……………………………………………………105 Chapter III. Washington Role in Taiwan – China Relations …………………………….110 3.1. Development after separation …………………………………………………………….110 3.1.1. Modernization of the ROC …………………………………………………………111 3.1.2. The PRC’s Path of Modernization ………………………………………………… 116 3.1.3. Economic Relations and Interdependence …………………………………….….120 3. 2. The role of Washington in building up the Taiwan society ………………………….…. 132 3.2.1. Arms Sales to Taiwan …………………………………………….…………….…133 3.2.2. Visa Waiver Program ………………………………………………………………137 3.2.3. Economic Issues ………………………………………………………………….139 3.3. Building the Trust across the Taiwan Strait ……………………………………………….144 3.3.1. Cross-Strait Agreements and Challenges ………………………………………….145 3.3.2. Developing economic ties with the Foreign Companies ………………………….149 3.3.3. PRC Political Influence ……………………….…………………………………150 Chapter IV. Yeltsin Presidency, 1991-1999 …………………………………………………156 4.1. Mikhail Gorbachev “New Thinking” …………………………………………………….157 4.1.1. Gorbachev’s New Directions Toward Asia ……………………………………….159 4.1.2. Relations between China and the USSR Under Gorbachev ………………………163 4.1.3. The PRC Response to Soviets Initiatives ……………………….……………….169 4.2. The Presidency of Boris Yeltsin ………………………………………………………….177 4.2.1. Developments of the Foreign Policy of New Russia ………………………………179 4.2.2. The Yeltsin Russia and the PRC relations ……………………………….……….183 4.2.3. Obstacles in bilateral relations ………………………………………….………….198 4.3. Russia, China, and Taiwan relations in the Yeltsin Era ………………………………….204 4.3.1. Gorbachev’s New Thinking Toward Taiwan ………………………………………205 4.3.2. The formation of a new Russian foreign policy. Moscow Beijing and Taipei …….209 4.3.3. Taiwan’s Hopes in Russia ……………………………………….……………….212 Chapter V. Putin in Power ………………………………………………….……………….223 5.1. First Steps of the New President …………………………………………………….…….224 5.1.1. Foreign Policy Concept …………………………………………………….….….228 5.1.2. Multivectored Russian Foreign Policy, 2000-2008 ………………………….……232 5.1.3. Energy as a tool of the Foreign Policy ……………………………………….……240 5.2. Asia as a vector of Russian Foreign Policy ………………………………………….….242 5.2.1. Sino-Russian Relations ……………………………………………….……….……242 5.2.2. Overlapping Aria of Interests - Central Asia ………………………….…….…….250 5.2.3. Pragmatism in the Pursuit of Multipolarity (SCO) …………………….………….256 5.3. Russia - Taiwan interactions under Putin …………………………………………….….261 5.3.1. Moscow-Taipei Economic Relations ………………………………….….……….262 5.3.2. Cross-Strait Tensions as a Threat for Russia ………………………………….….266 5.3.3. Cross-Strait Tensions as a Benefit for Russia …………………………………….267 Chapter VI. Medvedev Presidency ………………………………………………………….276 6.1. First Steps of the New President …………………………………………………….……276 6.1.1. Foreign Policy Concept ………………………………………………………….….277 6.1.2. New European Security Architecture …………………………………………….282 6.1.3. Moscow-Washington. “Reset” …………………………………………………….289 6.2. Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership …………………………………………………….….290 6.2.1. Economic Collaboration ……………………………………………………………291 6.2.2. Military Cooperation …………………………………………………………….…294 6.2.3. Energy Cooperation ……………………………………….…………………….….301 6.3. Russia - Taiwan interactions under Medvedev …………………………………….….…307 6.3.1. Moscow-Taipei Economic Ties ……………………………………………………308 6.3.2. Culture and Academic Exchange …………………………………………………312 6.3.3. National Innovative System. ………………………………………………………316 Chapter VII. Conclusion …………………………………………………………………….335 7.1. Main Summary ……………………………………………………………………….….336 7.2. Evaluation of theory of Strategic Triangle ………………………………………….…….343 7.3. Future Work ……………………………………………………………………………….358 Bibliography ………………………………………………………………………………….362 List of Abbreviations ADB - Asian Development Bank Am Cham - American Chamber of Commerce APEC - Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum ARATS - Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASTEP - Agreement between Singapore and Taiwan on Economic Partnership BAM - Baikal-Amur Mistral CBMs - Confidence Building Measures CCP – Chinese Communist Party CECA - Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement CEPA - Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement CETRA - China External Trade Development Council CFE - Conventional Forces in Europe CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States CPSU - Communist Party of the Soviet Union CSTO - Collective Security Treaty Organization DPP - Democratic Progressive Party DPRK - Democratic People''s Republic of Korea ECFA - Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement ESPO – Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline EurAsEC - Eurasian Economic Community EU – European Union FDI – Foreign Direct Investments FEBRAS -Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Science GDP - Gross domestic product IIT - Intra-Industry Trade ITRI - Industrial Technology Research Institute ICT - Information and Communications Technology KGB - State Security Committee KMT - Kuomintang Party MAC - Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council MOFCOM - Ministry of Commerce of the People''s Republic of China NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization PICA - Programme for International Students Assessment PLA - The People’s Liberation Army PRC - People’s Republic of China ROC - Republic of China (Taiwan) R&D – Research and Development SEF - Straits Exchange Foundation SEZ - Special Economic Zones SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organization START - Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty TAO - Taiwan Affairs Office TASS – The Telegraph Agency of the Soviet Union TPUEICC - Taiwan Provincial Union of Export-Import Chambers of Commerce TVEs - Town and Village Enterprises UN – United Nations USSR - The Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics WTO – World Trade Organization List of Tables Table 1.1. IR Theories: Realism, Liberalism and Constructivism. Foreign Policy Aspects….…30 Table 1.2. The Interpretation of the post-Soviet Russia Foreign Policy…………………….….37 Table 1.3. Four Types of interactions……………………………………………………….….45 Table 3.1. Trade between Taiwan and China, 1981-2000…………………………………….122 Table 3.2. Global Trade Dependence among Taiwan, China, and Their Important Trading Partners in 1998……………………………………………………………. . . . . . .……………………124 Table 3.3.Trade Economic Interdependence between Taiwan and China,1987-99 …….….….125 Table 3.4. Macroeconomic Indicator s ……………………………………….…………….…127 Table 3.5. Taiwan Investments in the PRC……………………….…………………………. 130 Table 3.6. Taiwanese investment in China, 1993–2003……………………………………….131 Table 3.7. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan Since 1980…………………………………………….134 Table 3.8. The U.S. trade in goods with Taiwan2012………………………………………….140 Table 3.9. Top Five US Trade Outgrowth with Taiwan, 2012…………………………………141 Table 4.1. Foreign Direct Investment to Russia (1992-1999)………………………………….181 Table 4.2. The Volume of the Transfer of Major Conventional Weapons to China by the leading supplier, 1990-1999…………………………………………………………………………….196 Table 4.3. Russia-China Trade, 1992-1999……………………………………………………198 Table 5.1. China-Russia Trade Volume (2000-2008)………………………………………….243 Table 5.2. The Sectoral Structure of Russian Imports from the PRC, 2000-2012…………….244 Table 5.3. The Sectoral Structure of Russian Export to China, 2000-2012……………….….245 Table 5.4. Central Asia Countries oil and gas reserves…………………………………….….251 Table 5.5. The Taiwan’s Trade with Russia (2000-2008)…………………………………….262 Table 6.1. Russia-China Trade Volume, 2008-2012………………………………………….292 Table 6.2. The Sectoral Structure of Russian Imports from the PRC, 2006-2012….………….292 Table 6.3. The Sectoral Structure of Russian Export to China, 2006-2012……………………293 Table 6.4. The Volume of Chinese Arms Imports from Russia (2005-2012)……………….…295 Table 6.5. Taiwan-Russian Trade. 2008-2012………………………………………………….309 Table 6.6. Distribution of R & D Expenditure by Sector………………………………….…321 Table 7.1. Russian Understanding of the World and its National Interest…….…………….…336 List of Schemes Scheme 1.1 Constructivist view on the process of foreign policy………………………….……32 Scheme 3.1. Stable Marriage Pattern………………………………………….………….…….155 Scheme 4.1. The Forbidden Triangle Concept…………………………………………………221 Scheme 4.2. Constructing the Bridge…………………………………………………….…….221 Scheme 5.1. China’s oil production and consumption, 1993-2015………………….……….248 Scheme 5.2. The Romantic Triangle of Russia-Taiwan-China interactions……………………274 Scheme 7.1. The Romantic Triangle of Russia-Taiwan-China interactions……………….….345 Scheme 7.2. Strategic Quadrangle…………………………………………………….……….347 Scheme 7.3. Strategic Quadrangle with a Zone of Overlapping Interests……….…….………348 Scheme 7.4. Complex Strategic Triangle……………………………………………….…….353 List of Graphs Graph 3.1. Top ten US Processed Food Export Market, 2009 vs 2013………………….….…139 Graph 4.1. China-Russia Balance of Trade, 1992-1999……………….……………….…….199 Graph 6.1. Top Ten Annual Net Oil Importers, 2013……………………….……….……….301 Graph 6.2. China’s Crude Oil Importer by Source, 2013……………………….…….….…….302 Graph 6.3. China’s Liquefied Natural Gas Import Sources, 2012…………………….………302 List of Maps Map 2.1. Taiwan Strait………………………………………………………………………….89 Map 2.2. Taiwan Strait. The Second Crisis……………………………………………….…….96 Map 2.3. The Taiwan Strait. The Third Crisis…………………….……………………………107 Map 4.1. The USSR Territory, 1989……………………………………………………….…177 Map 4.2. The Russian Federation and the Post-Soviet States……….………………….……178 Map 4.3. The Tumen River Economic Development Area……………….……………….…201 Map 4.4. Two no longer disputed islands………………………………………………………214 Map 5.1. East Siberia Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO)………………….………………….249 Map 5.2. Central Asia States……………………………………………………………….…250 Map 6.1. Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China Gas Pipeline…………………………306 學號: 899330160, 學年度: 103