| Summary: | Hydroclimatic change has the potential to directly or indirectly increase the occurrence and expand or shift the geographical range of infectious diseases. This may pose particular threats in the Nordic-Arctic Region, where warming is more rapid than in other parts of the world, but the climate sensitivities of various infectious diseases still remain to be investigated in this and other regions. This thesis aims to further our understanding of and predictive capability for the relationships between hydroclimatic change and infectious diseases. To achieve this aim, statistical correlation relationships were analyzed between seven potentially climate-sensitive infectious diseases and a range of hydroclimatic variables across various geographical scales and parts of the Nordic-Arctic Region. The studied diseases were: borreliosis/Lyme disease, tularemia, leptospirosis, Q fever, TBE, Puumala virus infection, and cryptosporidiosis. Hydroclimatic sensitivity has also been investigated through a statistical disease model, site-specifically parameterized at local scale, for the case of tularemia at different Swedish sites (counties) and for different scenarios of future hydroclimatic change. Moreover, for the relatively widespread Lyme disease and cryptosporidiosis, a scoping review approach has been applied to investigate how the complexity of the hydroclimate-disease relationships is considered and quantified in research so far and what key research gaps remain to be bridged. Results identify distinct hydroclimatic variables that are significantly correlated with six of the seven studied human diseases at large spatial scale over the Nordic-Arctic Region. The indicated hydroclimatic disease-driving variables and associated change relationships are to some degree consistent with previous reasoning-based discussions of climate-sensitivity of infectious diseases as increasing threats for humans. Notable exceptions are TBE and leptospirosis, which tend to decrease with increasing regional temperature and precipitation. ...
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