Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Bais, Alkiviadis F., Tourpali, Kleareti, Kazantzidis, Andreas, Akiyoshi, Hideharu, Bekki, Slimane, Braesicke, Peter, Chipperfield, Martyn P., Dameris, Martin, Eyring, Veronika, Garny, Hella, Iachetti, Daniela, Jöckel, Patrick, Kubin, Anne, Langematz, Ulrike, Mancini, Emanuele, Michou, Martine, Morgenstern, Olaf, Nakamura, T., Newman, P. A., Pitari, Giovanni, Plummer, David A., Rozanov, Eugene, Shepherd, Theodore G., Shibata, K., Tian, W., Yamashita, Y.
• Other Authors: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics Patras, University of Patras, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science Leeds (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre = DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR), Dipartimento di Fisica L'Aquila, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila = University of L'Aquila (UNIVAQ), Institut für Meteorologie Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin, University of L'Aquila Italy (UNIVAQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich), Department of Physics Toronto, University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2011
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00583951; https://hal.science/hal-00583951/document; https://hal.science/hal-00583951/file/acp-11-7533-2011.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7533-2011

International audience Surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects on both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations - particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery - and from the diversity in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980 annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1%) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16%) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects result in additional 2-3% reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1%). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone dynamics due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At high northern latitudes, the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will likely reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by up to 10% with ...