Modeling canker responses to variations in stand structure and climate.

• Main Authors: Roger W. Ruess (10651781), Loretta M. Winton (10651784), Gerard C. Adams (10651787)
• Format: Still Image
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Microbiology; Ecology; Infectious Diseases; Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified; smaller-diameter trees; Stand-level infection rates; growth declines; ecosystem function; aspen basal area; Widespread mortality; Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion; Populus tremuloides; 88 study sites; novel canker disease; disturbance regimes; Widespread aspen mortality; landscape position; canker infection; United States; canker incidence; successional dynamics; Alaskan boreal forests; carbon starvation; modeling canker probability; Alaska Range; summer drought; canker pathogen; 6 Alaska ecoregions; Alaska paper birch; summer vapor pressure deficits; aspen leaf miner outbreak; alaska range; Kuskokwim; Alaska
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250078.g008

Odds ratios for canker incidence response to 0.25 hPa increases in VPD during May, June, July and August derived from the mixed-effects logistic equation model: Logit (π) = log (π/(1- π)) = α + β 1 * DBH + β 2 * Relative Aspen Density + β 3 * Aspen Basal Area + β 4 * Mean Aspen DBH + β 5 * VPDmonth . Model results for stand structural variables and monthly VPD are show in S1 Table . Unit increases in variables with odds ratios above 1.0 significantly increase the probability of canker infection while those below 1.0 reduce the probability of canker infection. Thus, an odds ratio of 1.177 for VPD in May indicates that for every 0.25 hPa increase in VPD the odds of having canker increases by 17.7%.